President Jonathan Likly to Lose: Damina analysts predict Victory for Buhari

DaMina Advisors, a leading provider of risk advisory services for emerging markets registered in five countries, with a focus on Africa, has predicted a victory for the APC presidential candidate, Muhammadu Buhari, in the 14 February 2015 presidential elections.

Using its VERITAS Frontier Markets Electoral Forecast Statistical Model, the firm predicted a close election, with an eventual victory for Buhari by 700,000 votes, with both candidates meeting the second constitutional requirement of getting at least 25% of the vote in 24 of the 36 states of the Federation.

According to the report, Buhari’s victory will likely see him snatching the commercial capital, Lagos, away from the opposition as well as racking up double digit gains in the Muslim north and single digit gains in the south western ethnic Yoruba states.

“Jonathan is set to maintain his very high margins in the oil producing Niger Delta south-south region, his home region, as well as strong margins in the eastern pan-ethnic Igbo states. Jonathan will likely also hang on to some religiously mixed middle-belt northern states adjoining the capital, Abuja. However abandoned by his political godfather, influential former President Olusegun Obasanjo, and beset by an active Boko Haram insurgency in the north eastern parts of the country that has sapped his middle class and female support even in many southern.

“A Buhari win on the 14th followed by a strong showing by the opposition All Progressives Congress (APC) party at the 28th February governorship races will see Nigeria edge closer and closer to a more normal bifurcated two-party system with the APC on the center-left and the ruling People’s Democratic Party (PDP) on the center-right.

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DaMina Advisors Special Report I: NIGERIA’s Elections Forecast & Analysis